Hurricane season poses 'above-normal' threat, say
forecasters
Published on Thursday, March 11, 2010 Email To Friend
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By Charlotte Porter
NEW YORK, USA (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic
hurricane season will be more active than last year’s
and poses an “above- normal” threat to the US Gulf and
East coasts, AccuWeather Inc. forecasters said on
Wednesday.
AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in
the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricanes and
two or three of them going ashore in the US as major
systems. In all, 15 storms probably will be in the
western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and seven may
make landfall in the US, said Joe Bastardi, chief long-
range and hurricane forecaster.
“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,”
Bastardi said in a statement. “Certainly much more like
2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the
United States East and Gulf coasts.”
The Gulf of Mexico is home about 27 percent of US oil
and 15 percent of US natural gas production, according
to the Department of Energy.
Only nine named storms formed during the 2009 season,
the fewest in 12 years, and three of them became
hurricanes. Last year was the first time since 2006
that no hurricane hit the U.S. mainland. In 2008, there
were 16 named storms, and eight of them were
hurricanes.
The historical average is for 11 named storms, with six
of them becoming hurricanes, two of them major. A
tropical storm is given a name when its sustained winds
reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour, and it becomes
a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph.
A hurricane reaches major status at Category 3 on the
five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of at least
111 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1
through Nov. 30.
Bastardi said he raised his forecast from last year
because of a weakening El Nino, the Pacific warming
phenomenon that can suppress Atlantic storm
development, and because waters are warmer than normal
from Africa to the Caribbean while being cooler to the
north, a common pattern in major storm seasons.
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology
Project made its initial forecast for the season in
December, calling for 16 named storms with as many as
eight of those becoming hurricanes, five of them major.
WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven
hurricanes, three of them major, and the Commodity
Weather Group called a month later for 11 named storms,
as many as five of them hurricanes.
The federal Climate Prediction Center will release its
forecast in May.
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